Finance
Build a Cash-Flow Scenario Forecast
A transparent monthly cash forecast with base, downside, and upside scenarios for operational planning rather than investment advice.
The process
Work it in this order.
- Set the forecast horizon, opening cash date, entities, accounts, and decision questions.
- Import historical cash receipts and payments, remove transfers or other double counts, and reconcile opening cash to source statements.
- Separate recurring, variable, one-time, committed, and discretionary cash flows.
- Document assumptions for timing, growth, collection delays, payment terms, financing, taxes, and planned capital spending.
- Calculate monthly closing cash for base, downside, and upside scenarios and show the formulas behind every scenario.
- Run sensitivity checks on the assumptions that most affect minimum cash and identify months requiring management attention.
- Publish a forecast workbook, assumptions register, and variance-review cadence for owner or accountant approval.
Bring this
Inputs the cat will ask for.
- Opening cash and historical transactions
- Forecast horizon
- Expected receipts and obligations
- Scenario assumptions or planning ranges
Router + one playbook
Route first. Choose one.
Cat Paw loads one playbook per task rather than merging several. Start with this router; the remaining paths are workflow-specific candidates it can inspect.
- Router:
finance-pack skills/finance/financial-analyst/SKILL.mdskills/finance/cfo-advisor/SKILL.md
Guardrails
The boundaries travel with the prompt.
- Label forecasts as scenarios, not promises, and keep historical facts separate from assumptions.
- Do not recommend securities, loans, or personalized financial products.
- Require the user or finance professional to approve material assumptions and financing or tax effects.
Done means
A checkable finish.
The workbook reconciles to opening cash, exposes all assumptions and formulas, calculates at least three scenarios, and identifies minimum-cash periods for human review.
Sources
Where this process came from.
- www.sba.gov/business-guide/plan-your-business/write-your-business-plan
- ascent.sba.gov/8d/4b/6855ceed413ca6384044018eb2f6/your-business-financial-strategy-2-3-financial-statements-business-growth-decisions-tool.pdf
Sources establish the workflow pattern. Reddit and community posts, where present, are treated as practitioner anecdotes rather than universal facts.